As the dust settles after polling in Bihar, most exit polls have projected a return of the Nitish Kumar–Narendra Modi-led NDA government, suggesting the alliance could secure close to 150 seats in the 243-member Assembly. However, opposition parties have dismissed these findings outright, insisting that the results on counting day could spring a surprise.Beyond the exit polls, political circles are closely watching another unconventional barometer of electoral mood — the Falodi betting market of Rajasthan, considered the most influential among India’s underground “satta bazaars.” Located in a small town near Jodhpur, the Falodi market has a long history of making strikingly accurate predictions, from state elections to sports outcomes, though it operates illegally.While most television polls have given the NDA a clear edge, the Falodi market tells a different story — one of a photo-finish contest. According to the betting trends, the NDA is projected to win between 105 and 135 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), could secure between 97 and 127 seats.The Falodi market also predicts a poor performance for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, likely to win only 0–1 seat, while the RJD may emerge as the single-largest party with more than 75 seats, ahead of the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). The Congress, a junior partner in the Mahagathbandhan, is expected to fare the weakest among the alliance constituents.Interestingly, despite the tight race, bookmakers still assign a 60 per cent probability to Nitish Kumar returning as Chief Minister, compared to 40 per cent for Tejashwi Yadav.Adding to the mixed signals, the Axis My India exit poll — one of the country’s most reputed survey agencies — has forecast a closer-than-expected battle in Bihar, differing slightly from other pollsters that have projected a decisive NDA victory.According to the Axis My India survey, the NDA could win 121–141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may bag 98–118 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to win 0–2 seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM may secure up to two seats. Other smaller parties could win between one and five seats.The vote-share projections, too, underline the razor-thin contest: the NDA is estimated to receive 43 per cent of the vote, compared with 41 per cent for the Mahagathbandhan.While opinion polls and betting trends both hint at a tight race, political observers caution that Bihar’s volatile electoral arithmetic — shaped by caste coalitions and last-minute swings — often defies forecasts. The final verdict, they say, will depend not on projections but on the “silent voter” who remains the decisive force in Bihar’s politics.