Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, more intense and will affect people very differently depending on their age and where they live, according to a new study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur.

The study, led by Prof. Rajib Maity of the civil engineering department, combined detailed climate projections with demographic data to compare the recent past (1991–2020) with the near future (2021–2050) under various warming and population growth scenarios.

Researchers examined how heat waves and cold waves can overlap with heavy rainfall or prolonged dry spells. They found that concurrent extremes — such as heat waves occurring alongside floods or droughts — are projected to rise sharply worldwide. Asia and Africa are expected to be the hardest hit, with children and working-age adults facing the greatest risks.

The study warned that sub-Saharan Africa will see the highest exposure for young people because of rapid population growth, while in Europe, North America and Australia, the elderly are most vulnerable — especially to heat waves combined with heavy rainfall.

“Europe, in particular, is expected to see the highest exposure levels for seniors globally, raising urgent concerns for healthcare and social care systems,” the researchers said.
The study also projected that while cold extremes will decline in tropical regions, they will increase in parts of North America, northern Europe and East Asia. That trend could create the dual threat of more frequent heat waves alongside persistent cold spells.

One of the key findings is that climate change is the primary driver of rising exposure globally. In developing regions, population growth is expected to magnify the risks, while in Europe and parts of Asia, where populations are stable or shrinking, climate change alone accounts for most of the increase.

A spokesperson for IIT Kharagpur said the research stands out because of its age-specific approach. “Unlike most climate studies that treat populations as a single group, this study disaggregates exposure across children, youth, adults, and seniors,” the spokesperson said. “This reveals the unequal burden of climate extremes and underscores the need for region-specific and age-specific adaptation strategies.”
The findings underline the urgent need for adaptation measures and resource policies that protect vulnerable groups, such as children in sub-Saharan Africa and the elderly in Europe, as the effects of climate change intensify worldwide.