Airspace violations force NATO to tread a tightrope, deterring Russia without hiking tensions
NATO is stepping up aerial surveillance in the Baltic Sea, while France, Germany and Sweden are bolstering Denmark’s air defenses ahead of two summits in Copenhagen this week over a series of troubling drone incidents near the country’s airports and military bases. The number of serious airspace violations in Europe has spiked this month, including by Russian warplanes. But not all NATO allies agree on how to respond. Poland is ready to use lethal force. Others say that must only be a last resort. Regardless of who is to blame in Denmark, European leaders believe that Russia is testing NATO. Military planners in Moscow can observe how Western forces react, and countering intrusions by relatively cheap drones is a financial burden on the allies. In the wake of the drone incident in Poland, NATO launched operation Eastern Sentry, with Britain among the allies to send more air defense equipment. However, these deployments might also deprive Ukraine of the air defense systems it badly needs from its allies. NATO must tread a tightrope in its response. Poland’s message is blunt. It intends to shoot down intruders over its territory. “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told Russia’s U.N. delegation last week. “You have been warned.” Poland activated its air defenses over the weekend during a major Russian attack on Ukraine. Defense is a national prerogative, even within the world’s biggest military alliance. Poland or Finland, say, might use force to defend their territory. U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed that European countries should be able to shoot intruders down. The responsibility for that act would lie with the nation concerned. NATO, though, is likely to be more cautious in any joint operation using aircraft and equipment drawn from across the 32-country alliance. “We have to act decisively and quickly,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week, but he underlined that it’s important to “always assess the threat levels” to see whether force is necessary.
